Could Migingo dispute break East African Community?

This month, it is expected that the issue of whether Migingo—the tiny island in Lake Victoria—belongs to Uganda or to Kenya will be resolved. This is the date that was set for the joint comprehensive survey team, tasked with establishing the actual borders, to report their findings to both governments.

The team was created as decided in a meeting between ministers and other government officials from the two countries. It was held 13th March 2009 in Kampala and jointly chaired by Kenya’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Moses Wetang’ula, and Ugandan Minister of State for Internal Affairs, Matia Kasaija.

Among the documents for reference are the Constitution (1995), which points out the borders in Schedule 2, The Kenya Colony and Protectorate (Boundaries) Order in Council 1926, and Kenya Legal Notice No. 718 of 1963. The exercise also includes physical visits to the island and the relevant positions in the lake and has to be completed within 60 days.

As we wait for the results of a survey being carried out by experts to determine whether Migingo island is in Uganda or Kenya, using history as a reference, we should also consider whether this dispute could lead to the break up of the East African Community?

For several months now, there has been a dispute between the two countries about this island that has captured both national and international interest and media coverage. While the issue has been very heated in Kenya, it has not generated as much passion in Uganda. President Mwai Kibaki has maintained that such dispute can settled through diplomacy and fact-finding such as a survey. In a recent address to parliament, Kibaki said “I assure the citizens of the two nations that the issue of Migingo Island will be solved diplomatically by May 15 when the survey team finishes its exercise.”

President Yoweri Museveni expressed a similar view at a press conference held on 20th April 2009 that was also addressed by Rwandan President Paul Kagame, who was on a state visit to Uganda. Referring to the colonial documents that will aid the verification of boundaries, Museveni said they were “good reference points that we shall use to know the truth”.

However Kenyan politicians and the media have been sounding the war drums and declaring that Migingo is not in Uganda. In reacting to Kibaki’s address, several Members of Parliament accused him of not being assertive enough. Notably, these are from Nyanza Province, where the Kenyan part of the lake is located, and from the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) that has its biggest support there. There have been statements like the “issue of Migingo is non-negotiable” and “[we] "expected the President [Kibaki] to clearly tell Ugandans to leave Migingo”.

Compared to Uganda, where the saga is mostly confined to government circles, debates on talk shows and ebimeeza and newspaper articles, in Nairobi and Kisumu, there were violent protests in the streets. In the Kibera slum, youths damaged a railway line that links Uganda to the outside world and on which it relies on for trade. On 16th April, youths placed logs, stones and other objects along the Kisumu-Kericho road to block cargo trucks and trailers en route to Uganda.

It is worth noting that Migingo is not only the point of contention between the two countries. As the issue flared up, there were accusations of the Uganda People’s Defence Forces (UPDF) entering several kilometres into Turkana, which borders Karamoja. In the 1970s, there was a row over the ownership of Lolwe, Wayami, Remba and Sigulu islands in Lake Victoria when Idi Amin seized them claiming they belonged to Uganda. In the light of the current conflict, Kenyan Prime Minister, Raila Odinga said the ownership of the other four islands would also be discussed.

There have also been disputes over tariffs and non-tariff barriers under the EAC and bans on imports of milk, animal semen and day-old chicks and disagreements on proposed political federation of East Africa. Kagame, who is the EAC Chairman, remarked, “The Migingo issue is not as complicated as it is being portrayed. It is an issue the two countries can handle by surveying. It has not yet become an issue for the East African Community to be involved and I don’t think it will reach that level.”

But, if the issue is resolved in Uganda’s favour, could the Kibera kind of disturbances escalate into a regional issue since Rwanda and Burundi will also be affected by disruptions to the road and rail links through Kenya. In addition, With Tanzania having objections with aspects of a common market for EAC, could the Migingo saga be the spark that fractures the Community just like the differences between the different member countries led to the previous break up in the 1970s?